I think you have to keep in mind that -any- application that you allow to execute could do very nasty things to your computer. If a NSIS-decompiler exists, who is to say the decompiler doesn't contain a trojan?
If you're really paranoid about things, visit
www.sysinternals.com, and download tools such as DiskMon, FileMon, RegMon and TDIMon to keep an eye on disk access, file access, registry access and network access (no packet dumps in it though).
If you're really, really paranoid, then get an industrial strength runtime decompiler, learn assembly language, learn all the bells and whistles of Windows API calls, etc. You'll never get the source .NSI files out of the executable, so you'd need to learn these 🙂
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On the flip side - I do think that those creating installers could help the paranoid / power users out.
My installer, for example, does force everybody to go through an EULA page (with much thanks to ScrollLicense to void the 'click-through generation' argument). However, the user then ends up at an Install Type page with:
(o) Typical
( ) Custom
( ) Dump Files (expert users only)
Where "Dump Files" dumps all the files that would normally be installed to various locations, along with instructions on e.g. what would be adjusted in the registry, other programs' files (ini files in my case), environment variable changes, etc. to a single location - and shows the instructional file to the user.
This is mainly intended for 'power users', where the software being installed may be integrated in network deployment software, or where Typical/Custom don't suffice for their setup.
However, it can be used just as well by the paranoid to have at least some sense of the installer doing nothing at all, and just spitting out its guts. There's still some level of trust required, of course, that the installer doesn't do anything -beside- dumping the files.